This Conservative poll lead coincided with the unusual event of a governing party winning a seat from the Opposition, as occurred in the May 2021 Hartlepool by-election. By clicking 'Sign in and Subscribe' you agree to us subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. It found 72% of voters - including 69% of those who voted Tory in 2019 -. The pollster found. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. To donate or subscribe to The London Economic, click here. In the latest YouGov voting intention poll, the Conservatives have closed their gap with Labour to just four points. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Yougov (January 26) which placed the Yes side on 46.5% and the No side on 53.5%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Savanta (23 February) which placed Labour on 45%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9%. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Rishi Sunak fails to win back Conservative support in Wales, poll If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. The historic oil recipe is based on what was used at the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, the formula of which has been used for hundreds of years. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. Opinion polling on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union The leader of the SNP has insisted her party was "not divided". Scottish independence poll shows support cooling as referendum draws Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. ", Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or He is the co-founder of poll aggregator Britain Elects. Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence. Trend support for the Green Party has nudged up slightly to the 5%-6% mark. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. A new poll published by YouGov Tuesday shows that Sunak would lose to any of his three remaining rivals among Tory members in a final two-way round of votes. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention". The company, based in Drumchapel, has reportedly ceased all trading with its annual results currently overdue by more than two months. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? Early 2021. Labour surges to record lead in polls as Truss insists mini-budget did coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. However, there was even worse news for the SNP in the other new poll released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Thursday night and conducted on November 2-3. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show No campaigners to have consolidated their lead in the polls once again. Forgot your password? At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. Get the latest news from the Express straight to your inbox. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. All Rights Reserved. When Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, 2022, YouGov polling showed Labour on 40% and the Tories on 29% an 11 point lead. Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Conservative support then fell by a further 6% as the first Downing Street party allegations emerged. But we can't do it without you. Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. Latest Opinion Polls - The Result Of A General Election Today The poll also showed a reversal on the independence question over past month, with support for secession down from 53 per cent to 47 per cent among those expressing a view the lowest since last spring. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. By clicking 'Create Account and Subscribe' you agree to us creating an account for you and subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Polling, even using the same question, can show systematic differences between different polling organisations and sponsors. Former Sun boss and arch right-winger Kelvin MacKenzie also seemed to reach the same conclusion. Worst polling for Yes since 2019 as SNP support continues to drop, poll Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. The commissions interim findings most notably increase the number of seats in the South East of England (+7), London (+3), East Anglia (+3), and the South West (+3), at the expense of Wales (-8), the West Midlands (-3), the North East -3), the North West of England (-3), and Scotland (-2). The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techme (10 February) which placed Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 26%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. ", 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom, Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence&oldid=1142782908, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers. The latest survey from YouGov has put Labour on 46% and the . All Rights Reserved. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Labour opens up historic poll lead over Tories after days of market Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Voting Intention. YouGov | What the world thinks In early 2023, the No campaign had already regained an opinion poll lead, doing so at a time that coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022.