However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. Subscribe to ADM Premium. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. For Australia the decisions that will have to be made, in order to totally avoid an outbreak of war one in which Australia for all intent and purposes will inevitably lose and one that would encourage a ground invasion by Chinese forces is where to place China as these regional machinations increase? Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. [5] Andrew Browne. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. Everyone is doing it hard at present. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. And that was when I was a child !! Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. What the hell have we done? It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Australia cut. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. Don't miss a thing! Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. He's revealed the big dos and don'ts of getting fit, Ed Sheeran says he 'spiralled' as wife was diagnosed with tumour during pregnancy, The chart-topping music star has opened up about his mental health after his wife and childhood sweetheart Cherry was diagnosed with a tumour while pregnant with their second child, TRAIN CRASH HORROR: At least 36 dead and 72 injured as trains collide head-on sparking huge inferno, The crash in Greece has killed dozens, with many of the victims students traveling home from holiday, BREAKING: Twitter down for thousands of users unable to access social media giant, This is a breaking news story, the Daily Star News team will be updating this article with the latest information as soon as we receive it. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. Or so it seems. At any rate Australia is in trouble. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . [8] Gabriel Kolko. Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. they wont need to invade, they will own us. I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. And correspondingly, where to place the US? The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. The End of History and the Last Man. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. !! In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Updated at 01.00 EST The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. Have seen the legal document but forget where to locate it. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. War is a fools game and China knows it. Jacqui Lambie!! Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. Taiwanese . November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. No Australian Government can or could begin this journey to peace as all the present shitstems operations are to fuel war cause war is big business. A sad state of affairs. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Geography still plays a very important part in war. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. [11] GALLUPWorld. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. Agree with all comments . Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. 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